Cebu’s electricity demand exceeds its installed generation capacity by about 366 megawatts, forcing the province to depend on power from other regions and leaving its supply vulnerable when generating units go offline, the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) said.
Engr. Neil Martin Modina, NGCP assistant vice president and head of Visayas System Operations, presented the figures during the Cebu Energy Summit on Oct. 12, reporting that Cebu had an installed generation capacity of about 863 megawatts against demand of around 1,229 megawatts.
“Yun talaga ma’am ang kulang, yung nag brownout tayo,” Modina said, referring to the supply shortage that contributed to recent power interruptions.
Cebu continues to import electricity from other regions to meet demand. Modina said the province drew 445 megawatts from Mindanao on the day before the summit.
The return of several generating units has helped ease supply constraints. Units of Therma Visayas Inc. returned to service on Sept. 15 and 28, while a KEPCO unit resumed operations on Sept. 29. One unit of CPSC remained under scheduled maintenance for 29 days.
According to Modina, the restoration of generating capacity helped prevent further rotational brownouts. The last such interruption was recorded on Sept. 23.
The return of the KEPCO unit could add another 100 megawatts to Cebu’s generation capacity, raising it to about 963 megawatts. That would still leave the province short of its reported demand.
“Yun ang kailangan talaga natin sa Cebu, baseload,” Modina said, stressing the need for steady electricity generation that can meet demand regardless of fluctuations in renewable energy output.
He projected Cebu’s electricity demand to grow by 6% to 7% annually. His presentation also identified 2019 as the year of the last major baseload power plant constructed in Cebu, referring to TVI’s facility.
Ermelindo Bugaoisan Jr., NGCP head of Systems and Standards Division, said electricity demand across the Visayas had increased by 106% from 2009 to 2026, while generation supply grew by about 130%.
Despite that expansion, the region lost 22.44% of its available generation capacity during normal daily operations because of plant limitations, scheduled maintenance and forced outages, Bugaoisan said.
The Visayas also had an operating reserve of only about 270 megawatts, he added, warning that the loss of a major generating unit could significantly reduce the buffer and expose the grid to renewed yellow alerts.
The figures distinguish installed capacity from electricity actually available to consumers, which can be affected by maintenance, unexpected breakdowns and transmission constraints.
For 2027, NGCP projected that the Visayas would need an additional 1,282 megawatts of capacity without capacity-sharing arrangements. The projected requirement would drop to at least 634 megawatts if such arrangements were implemented.
Bugaoisan said transmission capacity could not always be fully utilized because the grid must retain sufficient contingency support to withstand the loss of a transmission line without compromising reliability.
New power projects
Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said the Department of Energy (DOE) was pursuing additional baseload and flexible generation to address the region’s supply constraints.
These include a planned 150-megawatt coal-fired plant by TVI in Cebu targeted for 2028 and another 107-megawatt facility expected in 2029.
The DOE is also pursuing proposed natural gas-fired capacity of 500 megawatts each for Cebu and Panay, with the earliest delivery expected between 2028 and 2030. Around 470 megawatts of renewable energy projects could also come online in 2028 if developers meet their schedules.
Garin said the agency was calling for an assessment of the transmission link connecting Luzon, Leyte and Cebu, which she said limits the additional electricity that can be delivered to the province.
Supply risks could worsen if Super El Niño reduces generation from renewable sources. Based on DOE projections, reduced water availability could cut hydroelectric generation by 40%, while solar generation could decline by 20%.
Province seeks clear timelines
Cebu Gov. Pamela Baricuatro said the summit aimed to clarify the province’s power situation and identify concrete steps that government agencies, power companies and other stakeholders could take together.
She said electricity interruptions affect households, businesses, hospitals and other essential services, disrupting livelihoods and daily activities.
“Everyday brownout means lost income for small businesses, disrupted work or another difficult night for a family,” Baricuatro said.
The governor called for clear commitments and realistic timelines so residents could understand what measures were underway and when improvements could be expected.
She said the provincial government would coordinate with local government units and raise concerns with agencies responsible for electricity generation and transmission.
“I hope today’s discussion will help us understand what is being done, what challenges remains and when improvement can be expected,” she said.
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