The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has raised an El Niño alert, signaling the growing likelihood of the climate pattern developing in the coming months.
In a statement issued Wednesday, April 22, PAGASA said there is a 79 percent probability that El Niño will emerge during the June to August 2026 period and may persist into early 2027.
The alert falls under the second level of PAGASA’s El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert and Warning System, which is issued when conditions strongly favor development within two to three months, with at least a 70 percent probability forecast.
“ENSO-Neutral prevails over the Tropical Pacific. However, most climate models combined with expert judgement suggest a 79% chance of El Niño emerging,” PAGASA said.
El Niño refers to the warm phase of the ENSO cycle, typically associated with warmer sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and cooler-than-normal conditions over the Philippine Sea.
PAGASA warned that the developing pattern increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall in parts of the country, raising risks of dry spells and drought in already water-stressed areas.
“During an El Niño event, there is an increased possibility of drier-than-usual conditions, which can lead to negative impacts such as droughts and dry spells,” the agency said.
However, PAGASA clarified that rainfall patterns may still vary, with some areas particularly in the western Philippines potentially receiving above-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season.
Local authorities in Cebu City said coordination with national agencies is ongoing to monitor the situation and prepare possible response measures.
Residents were advised to follow official weather updates and begin conserving water and electricity early to help cushion potential impacts.
PAGASA said it will continue monitoring ENSO conditions and issue further advisories as developments unfold. (LLP)
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