A hypothetical 2028 presidential and vice presidential race shows a tight contest between two tandems in the latest OCTA Research First Quarter Tugon ng Masa survey.
The tandem of Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Senator Raffy Tulfo led the survey with 44 percent support among adult Filipinos. It narrowly edged the pairing of Vice President Sara Duterte and Senator Imee Marcos, which received 40 percent.
Sixteen percent of respondents remained undecided. OCTA said this group represents a “significant segment” that has not yet committed to either tandem.
The survey asked respondents: “If the May 2028 elections were to be held today and the following are the tandems for president and vice president, which tandem would you vote for?”
It ran from March 19 to 25, 2026, using face-to-face interviews with 1,200 probability-based respondents aged 18 and above.
The poll carries a ±3 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level.
“The survey has a ±3 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level.”
“Although the 4-point lead should be interpreted cautiously given the survey’s ±3% margin of error, the findings nevertheless indicate a significantly more competitive tandem landscape entering 2026,” the survey report read.
OCTA said, “The Q1 2026 results suggest a competitive tandem preference landscape, with only four percentage points separating the Robredo-Tulfo and Duterte-Marcos tandems at the national level,”
The report also noted a first in its findings: “This marks the first time in an OCTA survey that a Robredo-led tandem has numerically surpassed a Duterte-Marcos alignment in a direct hypothetical preference test, the report added.”
It further stated, “While the Duterte-Marcos tandem remains a major contender, the emergence of the Robredo-Tulfo tandem marks the first time in TNM Surveys that a tandem has surpassed the support for Duterte-Marcos tandem.”
The Robredo–Tulfo tandem posted its strongest numbers in the National Capital Region with 61 percent support, followed by Balance Luzon at 57 percent and the Visayas at 48 percent. It, however, registered only 5 percent support in Mindanao.
The Duterte–Marcos tandem dominated Mindanao with 86 percent support and posted 40 percent in the Visayas. It also recorded 23 percent in both Balance Luzon and NCR.
“The Visayas and Balance Luzon are emerging as critical electoral battlegrounds likely to shape the eventual balance of the race,” the report said.
OCTA also reported differences across socioeconomic classes. Robredo–Tulfo led Class D respondents with 47 percent support, while Duterte–Marcos led Class E with 51 percent.
Previous commissioned TNM surveys over the past year showed Duterte–Marcos maintaining a lead of around 15 to 25 percentage points.
The survey was non-commissioned, OCTA said.
In an earlier interview last April, Robredo ruled out a national run in 2028 and said she plans to seek a second term as mayor of Naga City. Tulfo, her hypothetical running mate, also said he would not run in the 2028 elections.
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