Cebu could experience heat index readings of up to 52 degrees Celsius during the coming summer, potentially exceeding its previous record of 51 degrees Celsius set in 2018, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).
Engineer Alfredo Quiblat Jr., chief of Pagasa Mactan, said the agency projects possible heat index readings between 41 and 52 degrees Celsius, depending on actual air temperatures and relative humidity.
“It is possible that we could exceed the previous 51 degrees Celsius,” Quiblat said.
He noted that the current El Niño event appears stronger than some previous occurrences at a similar point in their development. However, he cautioned that the phenomenon does not produce identical weather conditions every time.
Cebu recorded a heat index of 51 degrees Celsius in 2018, even when El Niño was classified as weak, showing that the strength of the climate pattern alone does not determine how high the heat index can rise.
The heat index measures how hot conditions feel to the human body by combining air temperature and relative humidity. Quiblat explained that readings increase when both factors are high.
“Heat index is directly proportional to air temperature and relative humidity. When both are high, the heat index also increases,” he said.
Quiblat advised residents to be especially careful from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m., when heat index readings generally climb to their highest levels.
Historical observations show that air temperatures usually begin rising around 10 a.m. and peak between 1 p.m. and 3 p.m. However, high humidity can also raise the heat index before air temperatures reach their daily maximum.
He urged the public to limit direct exposure to sunlight to no more than 20 minutes, particularly during periods of extreme heat.
“Direct exposure to the sun should be limited to a maximum of 20 minutes. Beyond 20 minutes of direct exposure during maximum heat index or temperature conditions, different heat-related illnesses may occur,” he said.
For November and December, Pagasa expects temperatures to remain around 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius above normal. With the average maximum temperature during these months at about 31 degrees Celsius, readings could reach approximately 32 degrees.
Quiblat said residents could still experience cooler Amihan winds despite the warmer-than-normal temperatures.
The greater concern lies in the approaching hot and dry season, when El Niño and the seasonal rise in temperatures could combine to produce potentially extreme heat index readings.
Residents are advised to avoid prolonged exposure to direct sunlight, particularly during the hottest hours of the day, and take precautions against heat-related illnesses.
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