Pagasa is closely monitoring weather developments that could bring up to two tropical cyclones into the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this December, as cloud formations continue to build east of the country.
During Pagasa’s 5 a.m. forecast on Monday, weather specialist Obet Badrina said the agency expects one or two tropical cyclones to either form within or enter the PAR this month.
He reported that a cloud cluster northeast of the country remains under observation and explained that, based on the latest data, it is still classified only as a cloud cluster but may develop into a low-pressure area in the coming days and eventually enter the PAR.
Pagasa noted that if this system intensifies into a tropical cyclone, it would be the 23rd to enter the country’s monitoring zone this year and would be given the name Wilma.
A separate early-morning television report indicated that the potential cyclone, should it develop further, has a considerable chance of making landfall over Aurora, the Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, or Caraga.
As of Monday, Pagasa continued to track the same cloud cluster as it moved closer to the boundary of the PAR.
Pagasa administrator Nathaniel Servando said the country may experience near-normal to above-normal rainfall this December.
He also noted that from January to May next year, one to six weather disturbances may enter the PAR.
Servando added that the Philippines may see near-average to warmer-than-average temperatures in December and explained that cooler-than-average sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific are consistent with ongoing La Niña conditions.
He said climate models show that La Niña is expected to persist until the December 2025 to January-February 2026 season, after which ENSO-neutral conditions are considered likely.
The weather bureau added that three active weather systems, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the Northeast Monsoon, and easterlies, are bringing varying levels of cloudiness and rainfall across different parts of the country.
These conditions are expected to influence local weather patterns even as monitoring continues for the developing system east of the PAR.
